THESECOND
SPEAROF
AGILITY:
WHYWENEED
MEANING,NOT
METRICS
ANNALAVROVA
MADE FOR AGILE AUSTRIA CONFERENCE, 2026
ANNALAVROVA,WEMANITYREPLY
BELGIUM
SECONDSPEARCONCEPT
&SOMEEXAMPLES
WHATABOUTAGILE?
WHATMUSTCOACHESDO
CORRELATION,
CAUSATION,
METRICSAND
ANTHROPOLOGY
01
SOME
BACKGROUND
“THE AZANDE CLEARLY RECOGNIZE THAT TERMITES CAUSE
GRANARIES TO COLLAPSE.
BUT THEY EXPLAIN WHY THIS GRANARY COLLAPSED AT THIS
PARTICULAR MOMENT BY WITCHCRAFT.”
— E. E. EVANS-PRITCHARD
WITCHCRAFT, ORACLES AND MAGIC AMONG THE AZANDE
THESCENARIO:WHENAZANDEHUNTERSHUNT,
THEYOFTENWORKINGROUPS.WHENALARGE
ANIMALISKILLED,THEMEATISDIVIDED.
THEFIRSTSPEAR(EMPIRICALCAUSE):WHENA
HUNTERTHROWSASPEARANDWOUNDSAN
ANIMAL,THATISTHEFIRSTSPEAR(THEDIRECT,
PHYSICALCAUSEOFDEATH).
THESECONDSPEAR(SOCIAL/MAGICALCAUSE):
IFASECONDHUNTERTHROWSHISSPEARANDIT
STRIKESTHEANIMAL,HEISCONSIDEREDTHE
HOLDEROFTHEUMBAGA,OR"SECONDSPEAR."
02
SECOND
SPEAR
E. E. EVANS-PRITCHARD INTRODUCED THE IDEA THROUGH HIS WORK WITH THE
AZANDE PEOPLE, NOT AS A MYSTICAL CURIOSITY, BUT AS A PRECISE EXPLANATION
OF HOW HUMANS MAKE SENSE OF MISFORTUNE.
THESECONDSPEARPROVIDES:
MEANING:
ITANSWERSWHYTHISHAPPENEDTOUS,
NOTJUSTHOWITHAPPENED;
EMOTIONALLOGIC:
ITMAKESMISFORTUNEBEARABLE,
NARRATABLE,SURVIVABLE;
SOCIALCOHERENCE:
ITRESTORESORDERINAWORLDWHERE
RANDOMNESSFEELSTHREATENING.
03
SECOND
SPEAR
“SOAREYOU
SAYINGAGILE
TEAMSARE
IRRATIONALWITH
THEIRMETRICS?”
04
WHAT
ABOUT
AGILE
“WITCHCRAFT EXPLAINS UNFORTUNATE EVENTS.
IT DOES NOT DENY NATURAL CAUSATION —
IT SUPPLEMENTS IT.”
— E. E. EVANS-PRITCHARD
AGILETEAMS
ALSOKNOWWHY
THINGSHAPPEN.
BUT SECOND SPEARS EXPLAIN:
• WHY THIS FAILURE
• WHY NOW
• WHY TO US
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
AVERAGE LEAD TIME = AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS ÷ AVERAGE THROUGHPUT
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
YOU CANNOT REDUCE LEAD TIME
WITHOUT EITHER
REDUCING WIP
OR INCREASING THROUGHPUT
LET’SLOOKAT
SOMEEXAMPLES
NOT:
BETTER PLANNING
MORE PRESSURE
MORE DETAILED ESTIMATION
ONLY FLOW.
HUMANSDON’T SEEK
EFFICIENCYONLY.
THEYSEEK
COHERENCE.
MEANINGHELPSUSLIVE
INSIDEUNCERTAINTY.
“MANISANANIMAL
SUSPENDEDINWEBSOF
SIGNIFICANCEHE
HIMSELFHASSPUN.”
—CLIFFORDGEERTZ
14
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
CULTURE AS MEANING, NOT BEHAVIOR.
“THEUNITOFSURVIVALISORGANISM
PLUSENVIRONMENT.”
—GREGORYBATESON
15
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
“THEUNITOFSURVIVALISORGANISM
PLUSENVIRONMENT.”
—GREGORYBATESON
16
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
“THEUNITOFSURVIVALISORGANISM
PLUSENVIRONMENT.”
—GREGORYBATESON
17
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
“THEREISNOSUCH
THINGASASINGLE,
OBJECTIVECONTEXT.
THEREAREALWAYS
MULTIPLEINTERACTING
CONTEXTS.”
—NORABATESON
18
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
HTTPS://THECYNEFIN.CO/CATEGORY/ANTHRO-COMPLEXITY/
1)LOOKFOR
INATTENTIONALBLINDNESS
2)LOOKFORWEAKSIGNALS
ANDSTORIES
3)LOOKFORANTICIPATORY
AWARENESSANDTRIGGERS
19
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
CREATED BY DAVE SNOWDEN AS A PART OF SENSEMAKING PLATFORM FOR CYNEFIN AND CO
WHAT MEANING ARE YOUR SECOND SPEARS
OF AGILITY PROTECTING,
AND IS IT STILL THE ONE YOU NEED?
WHAT
MUST
COACHES
DO
WHATMEANINGAREYOURAGILERITUALSAND
SECONDSPEARSPROTECTING—
ANDISITSTILLTHEONEYOUNEED?
HTTPS://GREYSWANGUILD.MEDIUM.
COM/THE-HUNT-FOR-GREY-SWANS-
TOP-15-METHODS-FRAMEWORKS-6-
WEAK-SIGNALS-33C30658032B
https://cynefin.io/wiki/War
dley_mapping
https://batesoninstitute.org/
warm-data-labs/
https://www.amazon.de/Actionable-Agile-
Metrics-Predictability-
Introduction/dp/098643633X
THANKYOUAND
LET’STALK
connect with me
and drop me some feedback please
@loverovanna
the deck is here

AAC2026_Lavrova_ The Second Spear of Agility Why We Need Meaning, Not Metrics.pdf